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#battleground

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Most recently, and perhaps impressively, ♦️Bloomberg/Morning Consult has released a new batch of seven #battleground state polls taken from July 24-28.

Overall, they showed Harris #leading Trump by one percent (48 to 47 percent), as compared to a two-point Trump lead over Biden in early July.

The individual state gains by Harris were also striking:

she led by two percent (49 to 47 percent) in #Arizona, a real problem state for Biden;

by two percent (47 to 45 percent) in #Nevada;

by two percent (49 to 47 percent) in #Wisconsin;

and by an astonishing 11 percent (53 to 42 percent) in #Michigan.

Harris was tied with Trump in #Georgia at 47 percent,

and trailed him by two percent (46 to 48 percent) in #North #Carolina

and by four percent (46 to 50 percent) in #Pennsylvania.

Three battleground states have enough post-Biden-Harris-switch polling now for ♦️FiveThirtyEight to compile averages,
and all of them show very close races.

In #Georgia, Trump leads by 1.1 percent (45.9 to 44.8 percent),

but Harris leads in #Michigan by 1.8 percent (44.8 to 43.1 percent)

and most surprisingly, in #Pennsylvania by 0.4 percent (45.1 to 44.6 percent).

There is also significant evidence that Harris is doing better than Biden among the
#young, #Black, and #Latino voting categories on which Biden’s 2020 win depended.

In the most recent ♦️Times-Siena poll, she leads Trump among under-30 #likely voters by 59 percent to 38 percent,

among #Black likely voters by 72 percent to 19 percent,

and among #Latino likely voters by 60 percent to 36 percent.

A new Axios–Generation Lab poll of 🔸18 to 34-year-old voters showed
Harris expanding a six-point Biden lead (53 percent to 47 percent) to 🔥20 points (60 percent to 40 percent).

More generally, Harris is becoming more popular than Biden. FiveThirtyEight’s favorability averages for Harris currently show her at 42.4 percent favorable/49.1 percent unfavorable, up from a 36/54 ratio a month ago, and distinctly better than Biden’s 38/54 margin when he dropped out of the race.

nymag.com/intelligencer/articl

Suddenly, November got a lot more interesting in Florida.
The nation’s third-largest state, once the biggest #battleground in presidential politics, has become less important as its election results have trended repeatedly toward the political right. Few consider it a true swing state anymore.
But three rulings from the #Florida #Supreme #Court on #abortion and #marijuana, released on Monday, may inject new life into Democratic campaigns before the general election on Nov. 6.
The court, which leans conservative, upheld a ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, allowing an even more restrictive six-week ban to soon take effect. However, the court also allowed a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot that would guarantee access to abortion “before viability,” or at about 24 weeks.
In a third decision, the court gave the go-ahead to a separate ballot measure that would legalize recreational marijuana.

nytimes.com/2024/04/02/us/abor

The New York Times · With Abortion Ballot Question, a ‘Path to Relevance’ for Democrats in Florida?By Patricia Mazzei