Revisiting "Limits To Growth" on its 50th anniversary:

"Scientists have also sought to assess the validity of the Limits to Growth model by looking at how well it fits historical trends since its publication. Previous studies have explored how the various runs of the Limits to Growth model compare with actual trends and suggest that the world is most closely tracking the Double Resources scenario, which differs from the Standard Run in its assumption that the initial stock of non-renewable resources is twice as large as the Standard Run resource stock (figure 1). In this scenario, collapse occurs later and is driven not by scarcity of non-renewable resources (ie, a source limit), as in the Standard Run, but by persistent pollution and its impact on ecosystem stability (ie, a sink limit, otherwise known as a regenerative capacity limit)."

#DeGrowth #LimitsToGrowth

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00310-3/fulltext

a word about delays

this is not an actual archetype, but it can be said that a delay in a balancing loop almost always causes some problems, especially in a #limitstogrowth situation. #overshoot is the best example for that. and everything can be a delay. a stock is a delay in itself. a flow can and often has delays. delays are probably the thing i have the most respect of in a system.

@gerrymcgovern I think you might find it interesting to check out the first video (or however many catch your interest) of this playlist on "Metastatic Modernity" by Dr Tom Murphy of UCSD.

Murphy has been writing on energy, economy, modernity, and their intersection with planetary limits for quite a while at his Do The Math blog, and although that started in a pretty standard "green tech" position, as he started to look at things from a deeper, and rather darker, perspective which in 2021 he turned into an e-textbook _Energy and Human Ambition on a Finite Planet_.

Anyway, sorry for dropping in from nowhere.

#climate #modernity #DoTheMath #overshoot #LimitsToGrowth #sustainability

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvUde-N4t8XncjoHqK0GsE7a6EXMRiyjH&si=10IAmdlEF16Q2BnS

... in order to fulfill the wants of an ever-more desperate, physically and mentally impoverished populous that was promised to all get rich for 300 years straight, bc, in fact delusional fairy-tales of economic expansion and national wealth will be the only thing that will keep them in power and they know that. #trump knows that. #putin knows that. basically all #fascists of history knew that.

at times i feel humans cannot think about this. they cannot. they all go insane over time. every single one of them. do you want a list? i'd be easier to list those that haven't. way easier. either they become like a full on tinfoil hat or a far left accelerationist, or they just fail to tell people the truth, despite knowing it better bc they want to stay in the "hopeful message" narrative so badly. when is the point i will go insane? a question of "when" not "if"...

@_noelamac_

"the risk that the world ultimately cannot stick to a path that rapidly phases out fossil fuels and avoids the worst climate outcomes. "

quite optimistic huh... did they take into consideration resources like copper to do so ? Even if there's not enough to mine, you need fresh water to extract copper.

And if there isn't enough doom-loops, we should also add geo-engineering for some funky unpredictable outcomes.

@ecosurrealism degrowth only isn't enough, we have to kill capitalism.

so: if growing the economy to an infinite size doesn't make humans happy, then what does?

and that is where all hope lies. when enough people start to ask themselves that critical question.

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#sustainability
#resilience

as the old greeks knew there's hope at the bottom of pandora's box. so here is my hope:

we are trashing the planet. nature once gave us plenty and the last 3 generations of westerners took it all. we are trashing ourselves and others in the process. work a 8-5 to buy shit that intoxicates us, both physically and mentally.

but it doesn't make us happy, right? doesn't make us happy. are you happy right now?

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#sustainability
#resilience

i am sorry to confront people with all of this. this is all a kind of information with you should consume with great caution. i have seen people going genuinely insane over it. but no problem or predicament can be a addressed or responded to without being understood.

so i hope i find some people who are willing to think about this with me.

#limitstogrowth
#overshoot
#climatechange
#collapse
#collapseology
#sustainability
#resilience