Lebanon Front: Why the US-Zionist War Isn’t Over

The Zionist war on Lebanon is far from over. Southern Lebanon, the Beqaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs remain open territory for Tel Aviv’s assassination operations targeting Hezbollah cadres. Barely a day goes by without a Zionist drone carrying out a targeted killing or detonation.

Zionist drones rarely leave the skies over the south or the Beqaa – whether engaged in intelligence gathering or circling for a kill. Alongside this, western diplomats warn the Lebanese government that Israel is preparing for another round of violence to pressure Hezbollah into disarmament – unless a specific timetable is set for handing its weapons to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).

Disarmament by drone

As Tel Aviv’s key supporter on the global stage, Washington calculates that reigniting war will force Hezbollah’s support base to turn against it, pushing for disarmament once its weapons are seen as ineffective in deterring Israeli aggression.

This narrative is promoted through media outlets and social media influencers seeking to normalize this outcome. Even some Lebanese politicians have begun echoing these talking points in interviews.

In contrast, a counter-reading among security officials suggests the occupation state stands to gain little more than what it already has in the war. It can assassinate Hezbollah personnel at will, without prompting retaliation on settlements, given Hezbollah’s declared commitment to the ceasefire and its alignment with the Lebanese state.

Why, then, would the Zionist regime risk disrupting the truce and endangering its own population – especially when its stated goal of Hezbollah’s disarmament is far from guaranteed and the cost remains unknown?

A strategy without teeth 

Two scenarios are being floated for the handover of arms. The first sees Hezbollah voluntarily relinquishing its weapons – something party officials call impossible. In fact, Hezbollah’s base has become even more entrenched in its support for the resistance’s weapons, particularly after the massacres they saw in Syria’s Alawite coastal villages.

There, extremist factions tied to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the new Syrian intelligence forces slaughtered thousands of civilians based solely on their sectarian identity. Many now see existential threats emanating both from the Zionist regime and the extremist Islamist government in Syria.

The second scenario hinges on adopting a national defense strategy under Lebanese army leadership. This is a concept Lebanese President Joseph Aoun often brings up, with talk of Hezbollah transferring its arsenal to the army and integrating its fighters into the military institution to form a unified national defense force.

Yet here, a critical fact is omitted: the Lebanese army consistently destroys all missiles it seizes from Hezbollah positions south of the Litani River – particularly Almas and Kornet systems. Sources speaking to The Cradle reveal that international observers attend and sometimes film these destruction processes.

Ceasefire in name only 

According to the sources, the army follows explicit US directives in destroying these capabilities. The aim is clear: keep Lebanon’s army weak and incapable of forming any real deterrent against its aggressive southern neighbor.

Washington has no intention of allowing Hezbollah’s military assets to be transferred to the national army. Lebanon’s compliance with this plan spells the death of any genuine defense strategy – and the country’s new US-backed president, fresh from his post as commander of the LAF, well knows this.

US dictates go further than just weapons destruction. Beirut also refuses to condemn the regime’s repeated breaches of the ceasefire. Since the truce was signed on 27 November 2024, the regime has racked up over a thousand violations and killed more than 100 Lebanese civilians and soldiers.

Diplomacy has failed to halt these aggressions or compel Tel Aviv to withdraw from five occupied sites inside Lebanese territory, nor has the regime complied with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s request to halt the use of warplanes and drones over Lebanon.

In response to these thousand-plus violations, only three incidents of rocket or missile fire have been recorded from Lebanese territory into the Zionist entity – yet Tel Aviv’s retaliation has been ferocious.

Following the latest rocket fire, the regime bombed Beirut’s southern suburbs. Zionist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is keen to impose a clear, new military equation on its northern neighbor: any rocket launched toward the Zionist entity will carry an exorbitant cost for Lebanon. Tel Aviv is using disproportionate violence to deter further attacks.

The US, meanwhile, has pinned responsibility on Lebanon for preventing rocket launches from its territory. In response, Lebanese security services carried out a series of arrests. Ten suspects were detained in total – seven by army intelligence (three Lebanese, two Syrians, and two Palestinians) and three by General Security (two Lebanese and one Syrian).

However, none of the 10 have any proven connection to the rocket launches – they were arrested solely for being near the launch sites, according to technical evidence. In other words, the detainees are all likely innocent of the so-called “crime” of rocket fire.

A manufactured pretext?

With Lebanese agencies unable to apprehend any of the actual perpetrators, two scenarios remain. One is that the regime, through its local collaborators, is staging these rocket attacks to create a pretext for military escalation – especially given its near-total aerial control over the south, which makes undetected launches virtually impossible.

Proponents of this theory argue that Tel Aviv sees an opportunity – perhaps its last – to eliminate Hezbollah once and for all, buoyed by the international climate’s indifference to mass violence, as seen in Gaza. The severing of Hezbollah’s supply lines after the fall of former president Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria only reinforces this belief.

The second scenario is that Hezbollah or a Palestinian faction is indeed behind the launches. Some even suggest rogue elements acting without organizational approval. Given the known launch zones, only three actors are considered possible: the Zionist regime, Hezbollah, or a third group operating with Hezbollah’s awareness.

A war without end

If the regime’s complicity is ruled out, it means the southern front is unlikely to quiet down, regardless of how much violence Tel Aviv uses as deterrence. Any future war, no matter how destructive to Hezbollah’s arsenal, will not prevent southern Lebanon from becoming an open arena for all factions, organizations, and lone actors.

After all, despite the near-total destruction of Gaza following Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on 7 October 2023, the Zionist regime has failed to stop rocket fire from Palestinians continuing to resist the carnage. This very dynamic threatens the northern front, leaving Zionist settlers vulnerable and placing massive pressure on the Zionist government – now in its third year of a war, with no tangible victory in sight.

Tel Aviv has neither eliminated the threat nor secured its settlers close to the border areas – and it knows it cannot stop the rockets. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s patience with Zionist violations is wearing thin. The resistance is steadily rebuilding its military capacity.

When it is ready – once diplomacy is dead, and the Lebanese resistance’s legitimacy is renewed by continued Zionist occupation and daily atrocities – Hezbollah will not hesitate to respond. That will happen once the US-backed Lebanese government and army show they have zero ability to counter aggression – ironically, an outcome created entirely by the US-backed Zionist attacks on Lebanon.

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